Commentary
The Linear TV Model Will Change: Q&A With IPSOS' Greg DePalma
- by Charlene Weisler , Op-Ed Contributor, August 9, 2017
He also worked at TiVo, and on the media agency side with “nearly every media consumption and purchase behavior data company to inform campaign planning/targeting, activation and measurement.”
These experiences prime him for the current media ecosystem, which relies on an ever-increasing number of datasets — and questions about how to best leverage them.
DePalma has some interesting thoughts on data, the future of television and measurement:
Charlene Weisler: What do you see as the biggest current challenges to TV measurement?
Greg DePalma: The proliferation via time-shifting, device-shifting and platform-shifting creates a spider web of measurement problems. The technology on the back end to serve and measure program audiences and commercial ad views is not unified. Clients say they want advanced data targeting and measurement, but agencies are paid on demo CPMs. How do you measure a new data-driven brand campaign that is 10% of a particular network buy, which is 10% of your overall spend? There is no way you can parse out and report on 1% of a brand campaign.
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Weisler: Do you think the linear TV sales model will be here five years from now? Why or why not?
DePalma: The networks will try to hold on to upfront premium inventory trading as long as they can. But consumer behavior will move faster than the networks can hold on to the current linear TV sales model.
Anecdotally I see it with my tweens at home. Try asking kids, “if you could have one TV option, would you choose Netflix, Disney, or HBO?” The answer is Netflix 90% of the time.
It is especially discouraging to see only pharma ads on network TV evening news. Local stations historically made a huge percentage of their profits from news. Who is watching local news now? The ad dollars follow the eyeballs — and, sooner than later, the linear TV sales model will change to mirror digital trading.
Weisler: How has the role of data in media changed since you first started?
DePalma: Data has transformed the media marketplace in terms of transactions, talent and strategy. We see programs replacing people and data replacing insights.
You really need to dive under the hood. The black box research and attribution models have to be completely examined. I’ve seen media companies report on their ROI and attribute sales with a model that applied a 25:1 weight for their own ad exposure impact. I was fortunate to work on a team that challenged the media company to open up their attribution formula and provide the correct recommendation to our client.
Charlene, I find some of dePalma's comments somewhat questionable. For example, speaking of the upfront, he contends that "the networks" ( broadcast TV networks?) will try to hold on to the practice of selling their "premium" GRP inventory for a few years but, ultimately, this will become a failed part of their business plan. Actually, cable outsells the broadcast TV networks in the primetime upfront, accounting for more than half of the dollars and delivering something like 70% of the GRPs, due to cable's much lower CPMs. Also, a lot of early AM, day, early news and late night time is sold "upfront", not just primetime, so what, exactly do we mean by "premium"? Regarding the "evening news", these telecasts, whether national or local, have always been viewed mainly by people aged 50+ so it is hardly surprising that you see lots of pharmaceutical ads on the early news---as well as in daytime TV----in both cases the advertisers are merely targeting their prime consumers---old folks. Nothing new here.
I must say that I learned very little about how "linear TV" is going to change from this article and even less about what cross platform "audience" measurements are needed----or are practical. We need to drill down much deeper and study the data that is already out there in spades if we are going to make progress----not just theorize about "change". Instead of sweeping, highly imprssionistic, admonitions we need something a lot more tangible---starting with a realistic appreciation of what is really happening, not what the "buzz" claims is happening.