• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, January 17, 2017

Asked if there actually is a new kind of respondent bias distorting political polling -- one in which voters give a politically correct response, but vote a different way -- the leading data analytics gurus on the opening data panel at Marketing Politics said, not much has really changed.

Chris Wilson, director of analytics and digital strategy for the 2016 Ted Cruz Presidential Campaign and CEO of WPA Research said, not so much.

He said the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon is nothing new, and he cited the precedent of the “shy Bradley voters” that are the benchmark for the phenomenon political pollsters now call the “Anti-Bradley Effect.”

The effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate for the 1982 California governor’s race, despite being ahead in the polls going into the election.

The theory used to explain that phenomenon was that some voters who intend to vote for a candidate will give pollsters a more politically correct response, because they are embarrassed to tell someone otherwise.

Cambridge Analytica Head of Product Matt Oczkowski concurred that it’s not a new phenomenon, but it can be a very dangerous one if pollsters don’t adjust for it. He cited polling in third world countries, for example, as a possible strategic threat if the administration gets the wrong results.